Guessing Game - Week 6

Written by Ell | 09 October 2009

You get another bonus link this morning in our Guessing Game column. EDSBS drops this gem, showing why they're the class of the internet when it comes to college football. This post contrasting Les Miles and Nick Saban is both incredibly insightful and hilarious. Money quote:

Saban's brand of football, while effective, has the feel of someone killing someone for money; Miles, on the other hand, would be the kind of dashing rooftop chase scene where one opponent, down to their last bullet, kills the villain mid-monologue while clinging one-handed off the nose of a gargoyle. It's fun, but it will take years off your already bourbon and butter-shortened life.

I was a bad Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty away from perfect last week, and vault to the head of the class.

The standings after our second week of scored action are:

This week's picks after the jump.

Another good slate of games this weekend... you'll have to believe me that picks were made before last night's game.

And now, the biggie...

Ell:

I'm trying hard to get worried about this one. Jevan Snead has been, well, nearly Crompton-esque. He's looked good in spots (the first half of the Vandy game) then dreadful in others (the second half of the Vandy game). If he finds a way to put a complete game together, he could cause Bama some trouble. But he looked terrified against South Carolina's defense. And the Tide is better than South Carolina.

After the first half of the Virginia Tech game, the only thing that's been able to slow Greg McElroy has been high wind. The Ole Miss secondary isn't high wind. They're not even a gentle breeze.The Weather Channel forecast (thanks Scuff!) says wind shouldn't be a factor.

Mac makes hay in the passing game, opening up huge lanes that Mark Ingram rushes through, and barring a sudden resurgence of Snead, the Tide rolls big.

nxojkt:

There are 13 undefeated teams, with four of them in the SEC. Those four play each other this weekend, guaranteeing that the SEC's number will be cut in half. Shockingly, three of those four teams are in the SEC West. And at the end of the weekend, Alabama will be the only unbeaten in the division.

Bama is still looking for the right combination of guys to replace Dont'a Hightower, and that will cost them in this game. It will cost the Bama defense points, not the game. Jevan Snead has been at his worst when teams have forced the Rebels into passing, and Bama proved in Lexington that they can be opportunistic.

Ultimately this game comes down to third downs. Both teams are good at stopping opponents from converting. Ole Miss is fourth in the nation, allowing just 23.81%, while Bama is seventh, allowing 27.14%. Where the Tide really has the advantage is in actually converting as an offense. While Bama is 29th in the nation, converting 45.21% of its third downs, the Rebels rank 70th, converting just 38.89%.

Look for Bama to go right at the Ole Miss defensive front, softening up the secondary for Greg McElroy. This will be Bama's most hard fought game to date, but in the end, the Tide is 10 points better.

Glen:

Pre-season, who would've thought that Bama might have the quarterback edge over a healthy Jevan Snead going in to this weekend's showdown at Oxford? Based on results in the young season, that certainly appears to be the case. McElroy has played lights-out, while Snead has struggled.

This game sets up to be somewhat like the Virginia Tech game - both teams have rugged defenses, but only one team has the offense to consistently push it downfield against the other team's D. Just as in the Tech game, that team is Bama, and that will be enough to win the game. In fact, unless the Tide struggles to cash in its opportunities and gives up multiple big plays like it did against Tech - kickoff returns, for example - I expect the lads in crimson to win fairly handily.

Crump:

Bama travels to Oxford for their most important game of the year, so far. Houston Nutt has historically gotten his teams up to play against Alabama and I am sure that will be the case this week. If Ole Miss lays and egg, their season is over for all intents and purposes. That being said, Jevon Snead has been doing his Jonathan Crompton imitation lately so look for the Bama defense to force some turnovers. If the Tide offensive line can keep Greg Hardy and the rest of the Rebel defense at bay the Tide will roll in the Grove.