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Over the last couple of days, we've compared Alabama's 2009 stats to its 2008 stats, and Florida's 2009 stats to its 2008 stats. We concluded that Alabama is clearly better than it was in 2008, while Florida is at best about the same. However, we cautioned against drawing the conclusion that Alabama should therefore win because they played Florida nearly straight-up in the SECCG last year.
Now we'll take some of those numbers we've already looked at, the 2009 stats for each team, and compare them to each other. Once again, we need to set a context by discussing the schedules the two teams have played.
SCHEDULES
No need for a lot of guesswork here, because the NCAA keeps an official schedule strength stat. Alabama has faced the 19th-toughest schedule in the nation, while Florida's schedule clocks in at #30.
Neither team has faced a schedule that could be described as either "murderous" or "laughably weak," but the Tide has faced a somewhat harder lineup. Bear that in mind as you look at these stats.
OFFENSE
It might come as a bit of a surprise, but while Florida leads in most categories, none of their leads are very large and the Tide leads in two important categories, time of possession and fewest turnovers. Factor in the schedule disparity and the offenses are fairly close to the same.
In fact, when you consider that Florida ran up the score on the weaklings more than Alabama did - Florida had an average score of 60-4 against Charleston Southern, Troy, and FIU, while Alabama averaged 46-7 against FIU, Western Kentucky, and UT Chatanooga - the Tide might even have a slightly better offense than Florida as measured against real opponents.
Points/Game
Florida - 36.5
Alabama - 31.7
First Downs/Game
Florida - 22.9
Alabama - 20.5
Rushing Yards/Game
Florida - 236.7
Alabama - 212.9
Yards Per Rush
Florida - 5.6
Alabama - 5.1
Passing Yards/Game
Florida - 214.7
Alabama - 194.5
Completion %
Florida - 67.6
Alabama - 61.4
Yards Per Pass
Florida - 9.1
Alabama - 7.4
Penalty Yards/Game
Florida - 49.5
Alabama - 46.3
Turnovers/Season
Florida - 15
Alabama - 10
Sacks/Season
Florida - 26
Alabama - 14
Time of Possession
Florida - 27:56
Alabama - 33:00
DEFENSE
Again, Florida has a statistical edge nearly across the board, but again, it is not a large edge. Florida is a little bit better than the Tide at stopping yards, but not so much at stopping points, especially when you take the weak sisters out. Two excellent Ds, but I'm not sure you could really call either D "great," which means that maybe they didn't quite live up to the pre-season hype.
Put a hat over these two Ds. They're equal to each other.
Points/Game
Florida - 9.8
Alabama - 10.8
Rushing Yards/Game
Florida - 89.0
Alabama - 77.1
Passing Yards/Game
Florida - 144.2
Alabama - 156.8
Yards Per Rushing Attempt
Florida - 2.9
Alabama - 2.6
Yards Per Pass
Florida - 5.2
Alabama - 5.1
Turnovers/Season
Florida - 23
Alabama - 25
Sacks/Season
Florida - 34
Alabama - 31
SPECIAL TEAMS
In 2008, Florida had a huge special teams advantage, statistically, over Alabama - although it didn't really show up in Atlanta, as it turns out. Florida still has the edge here, but it's not a big one, as Alabama's special teams are significantly improved over last year's version while Florida has done no better than to stand pat.
Punting
Florida - 42.7
Alabama - 42.1
Punt Returns
Florida - 7.5
Alabama - 16.0
Punt Returns Allowed
Florida - 3.2
Alabama - 9.0
Kickoff Returns
Florida - 25.9
Alabama - 24.8
Kickoff Returns Allowed
Florida - 20.2
Alabama - 25.6
Field Goals
Florida - 19/27
Alabama - 27/32
CONCLUSION
If you can look at all the stats I've trotted up here this week and tell me which team is likely to win this game, you're a better man than me. Stats make it a toss-up. As so often happens in big games, it will come down to intangibles. That's strength on strength - and this statistical analysis is the wrong way to approach untangling that.
So I'll throw in one more stat: against common SEC opponents Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Arkansas, Mississippi St., and South Carolina, Florida won by an average score of 25.5-12.7, while Alabama took out the same six to an average tune of 26.7-10.2. Small but real edge to the Tide.
TOMORROW : nothin' - it's a long way from California to Hot ‘Lanta and I don't have a laptop.
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