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Alabama wasn't so terrible in 2008, either. Maybe if you only watched the Tulane and Utah games, you might not be too impressed, but if you watched ‘em all, you were. Alabama established an intimidating, physical team identity early on and rode it to a 12-0 regular season and the kind of performance in the SEC championship game that made losing nothing to be ashamed of.
So how does this team compare to last year's squad. We'll work the same mumbo-jumbo here as we did in Florida vs Florida, examining Alabama's 2008 regular-season stats and comparing ‘em to this year's. Once again, we'll set the context with a look at the schedule.
SCHEDULE
Alabama's 2009 schedule is about the same as 2008, if anything a hair rougher. They traded Georgia, Clemson, Tulane, Western Kentucky, and Arkansas State for Virginia Tech, South Carolina, FIU, NorthTexas, and UT Chatanooga. Maybe that 2008 group was slightly more difficult, but only slightly, and it's at least made up for by the improvement in Bama's annual foes Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, and Auburn. That's a tougher group in 2009 than it was in 2008, no doubt about it.
Close enough, I think, that you can compare 2008 Alabama stats to 2009 Alabama stats and conservatively consider yourself to be comparing apples to apples.
OFFENSE
Alabama's offensive stats are up in every category shown, but red-zone woes and penalties have prevented that from showing up on the scoreboard. Scoring is almost exactly the same as in 2008, but this offense still must be considered slightly improved because it is a bit less prone to the turnover than the 2008 squad.
Last year Alabama averaged 24 yards a game less than Florida in penalties. This year Florida has improved, Alabama has gone the other way, and the margin is only 5.
Points/Game
2008 - 32.1
2009 - 31.7
First Downs/Game
2008 -19.2
2009 - 20.5
Rushing Yards/Game
2008 - 201.5
2009 - 212.9
Yards Per Rush
2008 - 4.8
2009 - 5.1
Passing Yards/Game
2008 - 169.3
2009 - 194.5
Completion %
2008 - 59.1
2009 - 61.4
Yards Per Pass
2008 - 7.3
2009 - 7.4
Penalty Yards/Game
2008 - 35.2
2009 - 46.3
Turnovers/Season
2008 - 15
2009 - 10
Sacks/Season
2008 - 16
2009 - 14
Time of Possession
2008 - 32:31
2009 - 33:00
DEFENSE
Alabama's defense is slightly improved in most categories. The largest leap was sacks, which went from 23 to 31. Scoring defense would have improved more but for the woes of the kickoff return coverage team.
Points/Game
2008 - 11.5
2009 - 10.8
Rushing Yards/Game
2008 - 73.6
2009 - 77.1
Passing Yards/Game
2008 - 174.9
2009 - 156.8
Yards Per Rushing Attempt
2008 - 2.7
2009 - 2.6
Yards Per Pass
2008 - 5.2
2009 - 5.1
Turnovers/Season
2008 - 24
2009 - 25
Sacks/Season
2008 - 23
2009 - 31
SPECIAL TEAMS
Alabama's special teams stats are significantly improved in 2009. Punting, punt returns, kickoff returns, and field-goal kicking all show marked improvement. Even Alabama's bugaboo, kickoff returns allowed, did not fall by as much as Alabama improved its own kickoff returns.
Last year the Tide was basically hoping for a special teams wash in most of its games. This year Alabama is looking to grab an edge with special teams, and has done so several times (see, e.g., the Tennessee game).
Punting
2008 - 40.2
2009 - 42.1
Punt Returns
2008 - 13.2
2009 - 16.0
Punt Returns Allowed
2008 - 9.3
2009 - 9.0
Kickoff Returns
2008 - 19.2
2009 - 24.8
Kickoff Returns Allowed
2008- 21.6
2209 - 25.6
Field Goals
2008 - 17/25
2009 - 27/32
CONCLUSION
If you buy my conclusion that Alabama's 2009 schedule is the same as, or slightly tougher than, its 2008 schedule, then it's difficult not to conclude that Alabama is a better team in 2009 than in 2008, slightly improved in defense and offense and noticeably improved in special teams. Since the Tide gave the Gators all they could handle in Atlanta last year, that means they're good to go in '09, right?
Not so fast, my friends. In my humble opinion, Alabama played its best and most complete game of 2008 in Atlanta. Florida was on top of its game as well, but Florida played that well in several other games. I don't think Alabama did. If all that's true, then the 2008 SECCG may have made these teams appear a bit more closely-matched than they actually were.
But that's pretty opinionated, so let's drop it and get back to the stats. Overall, the stats say that Alabama is better than they were in 2008, while Florida is no better than the same team and maybe not quite that.
TOMORROW: Alabama vs. Florida, the 2009
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