Written by Ell
| 23 October 2008
I took a little time this week and broke down the numbers so we could get a real picture of what the impact of the Cody injury on the second half defensive debacle was.
The numbers just don't lie here. It's not great. It's not quite as bad as it looks at first blush, but it is bad.
The raw numbers look like this:
|
With Cody Available
|
Without Cody Available
|
|
Per Play |
Yards |
Plays |
Per Play |
Yards |
Plays |
| Total |
4.52 |
122 |
27 |
5.80 |
232 |
40 |
| Rushing |
5.00 |
75 |
15 |
4.24 |
72 |
17 |
| Passing |
3.92 |
47 |
12 |
7.62 |
160 |
21 |
First, let's discuss those rushing numbers.
Before Cody's injury, the defense had allowed 75 yards on 15 carries. That's not terrific. Until you consider that 62 of those were on one Enrique Davis carry. That play cannot be blamed on Cody. He clearly has his blocker three yards deep in the backfield early in the play.
Glen blames it on Cory Reamer, but it seemed like it was a called blitz and Reamer was just following orders. He got destroyed by the pulling guard. Perfect call against that defense.
So, if we take that one outlier out, the defense allows 13 yards on 14 carries. I think we can objectively agree that's better than OK.
The passing numbers are, in total, much better with Cody available. It's important to note that Cody doesn't play every down. He played roughly 60% of the snaps before his injury. Most of those snaps are "running" downs. That means he is making a larger impact on play action passes and the like.
It's because he moves the line. Moves it in the way of the quarterback.
No doubt that without the injury, Cody would have played a smaller percentage of plays in the second half. He doesn't play much on obvious passing downs - for instance, we had a combination of ends and jack linebackers on the field for all but the first two plays of the final drive.
However, those situations turn up numbers that are different than expected - to say the least. Comparing apples to apples (as best we can*), we look at when Cody was on the field versus when he would have likely been on the field after the injury. These are the numbers:
|
Cody In
|
Expected Cody Plays*
After Injury |
|
Per Play |
Yards |
Plays |
Per Play |
Yards |
Plays |
| Total |
6.00 |
96 |
16 |
5.00 |
95 |
19 |
| Rushing |
8.22 |
74 |
9 |
2.83 |
34 |
12 |
| Passing |
3.14 |
22 |
7 |
8.71 |
61 |
7 |
There are, however, signs of life here as well. Statistically, Bama defended the run better without Cody than with. But, when you recall the 62 yard rush (and how that can truly effect a sample of this size), it is a bit more concerning. Take that one play away, and with Cody in the game, the Tide defense allows just 2.27 yards per play on 15 plays.
The pass defense is much worse. Cody changes things when he's in the game. Things like the uprightness of offensive linemen. That clearly disrupts the passing attack. Some of that must be attributed to Ole Miss throwing more often as well, and Snead seemingly finding a rhythm. But some of it was Cody's impact.
Now, we've played worse in the second half all year - with or without Cody. Our lack of depth clearly hurts us late. Cody being out means we'll possibly see more Milton Talbert playing time (since Lorenzo Washington appears destined for second string tackle behind Chapman and Talbert slides into Washington's backup end role). At this point, that's not particularly good news.
It's possible that all this can be explained by a less aggressive second half defense, paired with fatigue and emotional deflation after Cody's injury... but it's likely those aren't the only factors. Here's hoping for a speedy recovery for Terrence Cody.
* "Expected Cody Plays" are first and 10, second and less than 6, and third (and fourth) and less than 4. In reality, he took 7 consecutive plays off in the first half without any "reason" so, our expected plays may be a bit more optimistic than what would have happened in reality.
