Written by Ell
| 05 December 2008
We all went 4-2 last week - all in entirely different ways. nxojkt has it wrapped up. If he found a way to go 0-6 and I went 6-0, I'd still finish a game back. Wait... I've just decided we'll need a bowl bonus round!
| Player |
This Week |
Overall Record |
| nxojkt |
4-2 |
61-23 |
| Ell |
4-2 |
54-30 |
| Glen |
4-2 |
53-31 |
| Crump |
4-2 |
51-33 |
Here are this week's picks:
| Game |
Ell |
nxojkt |
Glen55 |
Crump |
| Oklahoma vs Missouri |
Oklahoma |
Oklahoma |
Oklahoma |
Oklahoma |
| BC vs Virginia Tech |
Va Tech |
BC |
Va Tech |
Va Tech |
| Pittsburgh vs. UConn |
Pitt |
UConn |
Pitt |
Pitt |
| South Florida vs WVU |
WVU |
WVU |
WVU |
WVU |
| Arkansas St vs Troy |
Troy |
Troy |
Troy |
Troy |
Next up, the biggest game of the decade for the Tide.
nxojkt:
It will be essential that Alabama play a complete game for the Tide to win. The Gators are the best team that Alabama has played this season, and the margin for error will be very small. In order for Alabama to win, I feel they need to hold the Gators under the 30 points that they have scored in all of their wins.
The Gators' speed presents a problem, but only if you fail to keep guys in front of you. If Alabama plays "assignment football" the Tide should be able to limit the Florida rushing attack enough to force Florida into more standard passing than the Gators like to use. Of course, forcing the game into the hands of the reigning Heisman Trophy winner seems a ridiculous strategy, but it is the best way to be a formidable opponent.
Each team has a few injury situations that could be key in the game. Florida's Percy Harvin is a force to be reckoned with, and if he is not able to play, it changes the dynamic of the Gator offense. The Gators also have three defensive linemen who have been dealing with injuries, and at least one of those is expected to miss the game, with the other, at best, playing at less than 100%. For Bama to truly take advantage of that, Roy Upchurch needs to be healthy and playing.
Big games are typically won at the line of scrimmage, and Bama has the edge on both sides of the ball. Bama should be able to run the ball effectively, and that will keep the Florida offense on the sideline. The last time these two teams played in the Georgia Dome, Bama had more than 40 minutes of time of possession. That's the formula for victory again. It will be close, but
Bama punches its ticket to Miami for the BCS National Title Game.
Glen:
I'm a huge believer in Florida. They are no fluke. Their season-long ouvre is more impressive than Alabama's. Tim Tebow is one of the greatest players to ever step on a college football field, and he is accompanied by abundant talent and guided by one of the best coaches in the land.
Alabama has been less impressive season-long, but the Tide's entire offensive and defensive philosophies are not geared toward blowouts against average teams, but rather toward winning big games against big teams. With few penalties, few turnovers, and a rock-solid D, Alabama makes you earn everything you get, and with a ground-game-oriented, ball-control offense, they don't give you many opportunities to earn it.
A month ago, when this game began to loom and its parameters began to be set, I gave Bama a 40-45% chance at winning, based on the above. But things have turned Bama's way since then. Florida has had a handful of key injuries, while the Tide's health has remained almost supernaturally good, as it has all season, while Alabama's last 10 quarters of play has been its most solid and consistent stretch of the season. That 40-45% is now up to 60-65%. So when it comes down to a prediction, I'm not saying that Alabama will get .65 of a W and Florida will get .35 of a W, I'm saying
the Tide is gonna roll, baby.
Ell:
I've been trying to get a good feel for this game all week. I waffle back and forth. One minute, I'm convinced our defense can contain Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow, the next I wake up in a cold sweat thinking about quick slants and zone reads...
But no matter what, I keep coming back to where this thing all started. I keep coming back to standing in the bar before the Clemson game. I was chatting with a kid from Clemson who was terrified. I didn't understand why. He said, "you're better on both lines. And when one team is better on both lines, they almost always win."
I don't have to tell you how that worked out.
It works out in a similar fashion this weekend. I don't mean we win going away, however. I mean our lines rule the day. They are able to control the flow of the game, and that means time of possession. That means we "keep the offense off the field" (as much as can be done). And that means, the Tide ekes out a win and makes reservations for Miami.
Crump:
I will be surprised if this actually takes place. According to everyone in the national media there is no reason to bother since Alabama can't hold Florida's jock. Listening to them, we should be looking forward to the Gators and New York Giants match-up in the Super Bowl.
Frankly that is fine by me.
It will make it that much sweeter when
the Tide rolls in Hotlanta. This will be by far the best team Bama has faced this season but I just like how they match-up against the Gators.
The Alabama defense will put the wood to Tim Tebow like no one else has as they bring pressure from everywhere. They key to stopping them will be to limit the big play - something the Tide does best.
Offensively, look for John Parker Wilson to throw a little more than usual early as I would expect Florida to load up to stop the run. Then again, most teams the Tide has played this season has done the same and Bama has run it down there throat anyway.
ROLL TIDE!!!!! Submit your own picks for these games in the comments section.
